Russia’s mortgage loans issuing to fall 10–20% in 2022

MOSCOW, Aug 18 (PRIME) -- The issuance of mortgage loans by Russian banks will decrease by only 10–20% in 2022 thanks to rising sums of such loans, the National Credit Ratings agency said in a research note on Thursday.

“The entire sum of the (mortgage) issuing will amount to at least 4.5 trillion rubles, or 5 trillion rubles under an optimistic scenario, which will mark an only 10–20% decrease as compared with the record high 2021,” it said.

The agency’s basic scenario does not assume that Russia’s issuing of mortgage loans can reach the average level of 2021 due to weakening consumer demand and Russians’ real disposable income.

In July–December, banks can open 2.6–2.8 trillion rubles of mortgage loans “unless the macroeconomic situation worsens, and the conditions of the subsidized programs change,” which is a rise of 50% as compared with January–June.

The number of issued mortgage loans will fall by 30–35% to 1.2–1.25 million loans, which is worse than the result of 2019.

“The segment’s partial recovery will be ensured by the average check that will grow by around 25%. In August, it is likely to top 4 million rubles, and in the entire 2022, it can approach 4.2 million rubles, which is almost twice as large as compared with the beginning of 2019,” the research note read.

The National Credit Ratings agency also said that Russian banks are likely to reduce the rates of their own mortgage programs to below 9% soon, which was last seen in the autumn of 2021.

The United Credit Bureau said in a research note that Russian banks increased mortgage loans issuing by 25% to 295 billion rubles, and the number of new mortgage loans by 27% to 78,150 units in July.

(60.7552 rubles – U.S. $1)

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